Exponential Effort

Operating from a leverage-based mindset means constantly asking, how much output value can I get for any given input cost? Over time, you will increasingly untether input from the output by gaining leverage….To make this change, we can shift from the orientation of a work ethic to the orientation of a leverage ethic.
-Rian Doris, Flow Collective

The 2023-24 NBA season is just getting started, but already Steph Curry is off to a great start - hitting more than four 3-pointers in each of his first nine games. It’s easy to suffer from the “law of diminishing astonishment” when watching Curry shoot one 3-pointer after another. But let’s take a closer look at what separates Curry from other 3-point legends, and see how he uses the power of leverage to optimize his scoring…

At 6-2 Curry is one of the smallest 3-point superstars in NBA history, but as we dig into the stats, not only does he take a ton of high leverage shots - he leads the league in 3-pts attempted - but his scoring percentage on 3-points attempted is an astonishing 42.8%. It turns out that from a percentage perspective, only Kyle Korver was a better 3-point shooter than Steph Curry! But, Korver - who is taller and not as agile as Curry -was not able to take as many attempts during his career.

It’s also worth noting Klay Thompson, who is almost as gifted a 3-point shooter as Curry - does not take the same number of attempts. Of course, he is playing alongside Curry - so the majority of takes tend to go to Curry rather than Thompson.

In the highly competitive and fixed scoring opportunity world of the NBA, Curry’s performance shows that leverage comes from extreme accuracy, as well as number of attempts made. In other words - you need to be skillful enough to make a high percentage of your shots, and also - creative enough to get open and actually take those shots.

Sports can be a great metaphor for life and business - but there is one major distinction to consider, and that is that the most points Steph Curry can get for taking a shot is 3-points, so ultimately his leverage is somewhat limited. Watching him practice, sometimes you see him take and make shots from half court - but so far, the NBA does not have a “5-Point shot” for making it from half court. (You can be 100% sure that if there is ever a 5-point line, Steph Curry would be there, leveraging his incredibly accurate shot).

However, in the “real world”, we can often step back, take a long shot and score 5 points, or 10 points, or even 1000 points. Jeff Bezos describes this type of oversized leverage vividly:

"Outsized returns often come from betting against conventional wisdom, and conventional wisdom is usually right. Given a 10 percent change of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time. But you're still going to be wrong nine times out of ten.

"We all know that if you swing for the fences, you're going to strike out a lot, but you're also going to hit some home runs. The difference between baseball and business, however, is that baseball has a truncated outcome distribution. When you swing, no matter how well you connect with the ball, the most runs you can get is four. In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you can score 1,000 runs. This long-tailed distribution of returns is why it's important to be bold. Big winners pay for so many experiments."

Each situation and opportunity in life reveals different ways to “score points”. Sometimes, it makes sense to just take the “easy” 2-point layup, or go to the line and get your 1-point foul shot. However - if you are really looking for exceptional performance, the big opportunities are a little further outside the paint where the three point line is. If you can get yourself open and consistently achieve high leverage wins, you will start to see high impact returns. And of course, if you see a chance to score 1,000 points by shooting from half court, and the opportunity cost is relatively low - get yourself open, take that shot, and see what happens!